If steady price deflation were operative
If steady price deflation were operative as is the case in a properly functioning consumer economy , where productivity improvements flow into lower consumer prices—the world would be quite different today and far more difficult for bankers and bureaucrats. With steadily falling prices, bankers must do proper credit analysis. They must set aside ample reserves and generally run their institutions more conservatively. Credit analysis is far more difficult in deflation as borrowers must continuously sell more goods to service their loans rather than relying on boosting prices. Secured loans become problematic as pledged assets devalue. Banking generally becomes a lot more work—and more risky. The period of 1865 to 1910 in the United States was a perfect example of this sort of environment. Record bank failures and enormous financial volatility accompanied steady deflation and one of the greatest periods of economic prosperity and innovation in our nation’s history. In short, deflat...